A Lebanese civil war? Not just yet

A Lebanese civil war? Not just yet
Sharp Analysis from Mideastrisk, a new belgium-based political risk consultancy.A Lebanese civil war? Not just yetBy Nada Doumit Lebanon's political leaders are today confronted with two simple choices: to talk now in order to avoid a civil war or to talk later after waging one. The leaders have already held two series of national dialogue roundtables, with 14 leaders representing all major political and religious currents, debating vital national issues. They failed to reach a consensus on where Lebanon is heading, polarizing an already tense political situation. These consecutive failures could prove costly as many believe that the ingredients of a civil war are coming together in the country. Indeed, the assassinations of prominent political and media figures that followed that of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005, including the latest killing of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, seem to be pushing Lebanese factions toward confrontation. Compromise seems impossible to achieve through peaceful and democratic means. However, not all the ingredients of civil war are present just yet. While dynamics of confrontation aredeveloping in a polarized Lebanese society, the country is still deeply affected by the wounds of the not-so-distant 1975-90 Civil War. The society is showing impressive antagonism to internal violence. It is true, however, that the systematic assassination of prominent political figures is eroding this resistance.Most Lebanese politicians, be they Christians or Muslims, Sunnis or Shiites, do not see any meaningful benefits in a full-fledged internal conflict. Many of them fought each other during the Civil War, but today they all agree that resorting to violence would be catastrophic. On the day that his son Pierre was killed, former President Amin Gemayel called for prayer and asked that no one engage in acts of revenge. Hizbullah, the only armed faction in Lebanon, has insisted through its secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, that any toppling of the Siniora government, including through the organization of massive street demonstrations, should be peaceful and not endanger civil stability. Another key ingredient missing for a civil war to ignite is the religious factor. Though Lebanese society is religiously divided, the current divide between pro-Syrians and anti-Syrians is not based on clear sectarian divisions. Rather, it is based on political divisions that are impacting on sectarian relations. On the one hand, the so-called anti-Syrian ruling majority mainly includes Sunnis headed by Saad Hariri, Druze led by Walid Jumblatt, and Christians who support Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea. On the other hand, the so-called pro-Syrian forces are headed by the Shiite Hizbullah in alliance with the Shiite Amal movement, Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun, and other smaller Druze and Christian movements. Christians are divided and a Christians versus Muslims conflict does not seem likely in the foreseeable future. A Sunni-Shiite conflict, influenced by the situation in Iraq, is perhaps more so. However, the Iraqi conflict is not yet influential enough to export its most sinister dynamics to Lebanon.That said, more assassinations and continued regional and international rivalries being played out in Lebanon could push the different groups in society toward more violent expression of their political demands. However, political trends like "pro-Syrianism" and "anti-Syrianism" are not ideologies that could motivate civilians to take up arms and fight each other.Finally, the last ingredient for civil war is arms to fight with. For the moment, only one side, Hizbullah, possesses weapons ready to be used combined with an ideology strong enough to mobilize popular support. The party has said, however, that its weapons are not there to be used against other Lebanese, only against Israel. The worst-case scenario still requires a second armed group or alliance to fight against and the existence of an opposite ideology to fight for. Lebanon's wars have often been ended thanks to agreements sponsored by foreign powers. This was the case with the 1989 Taif Accord, which ended 15 years of a conflict in which an estimated 150,000 people were killed and 300,000 wounded. Renewed dialogue is now the way for the Lebanese to avoid returning to such a pattern of conflict then international-led reconciliation. Nada Doumit is a Lebanon analyst for the political risk company MidEastRisk.