The Lebanese need to find a way out before it's too late

The Lebanese need to find a way out before it's too late
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
Editorial
Those who perform on the Lebanese political stage have become inmates at a rhetorical prison of their own making. Both the opposition and the government have vowed to come out on top in their tussle over the latter's demand for an expanded presence in Cabinet. No matter how peaceful and democratic each has promised to be in either challenging or protecting the status quo, however, repeated incidents of violence in recent days demonstrate clearly that no confidence can be placed in such guarantees. The two sides have whipped their respective supporters into a frenzy of tribal animosity that will take months to dispel - even if the current crisis can be defused. Large numbers of angry young men from the two camps are now heeding their baser instincts rather than their leaders' commands. This is not to mention the potential for a single agent provocateur to turn a confused situation into a bloodbath.
A flurry of diplomatic activity is under way, with mediation efforts led by Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Arab League. The consultations have included all of the factions here in Lebanon, as well as interested outside parties like Iran and Syria. These efforts have the potential to succeed, but only if all of the participants understand the urgency of their task. The Lebanese people would obviously benefit from a restoration of stability, but so would the entire Middle East, which stands to sustain severe damage if the crisis is allowed to continue and, almost inevitably, grow more intractable and more violent.
US President George W. Bush is expected to receive a crucial report today from the special committee established to examine policy options for another problem with region-wide implications, the debacle in Iraq. This is supremely relevant to the Lebanese situation because digesting and implementing the panel's recommendations will soon occupy the full attention of those governments whose input might help keep Lebanon from another descent into the abyss. Several Arab diplomats have warned that if Lebanon does not get its act together in short order, it will be pushed onto the proverbial back burner. What happens then is anyone's guess, but the likelihood is that without active international assistance, things will go from bad to worse with alarming speed.http://www.dailystar.com.lb
This is not the first time that Lebanon has required outside help to settle local differences. As usual, the internal issues are tightly intertwined with external ones, so a solution may of necessity involve commitments from foreign actors. If Lebanon's feuding factions fail to strike a deal before those actors become preoccupied with Iraq, the only outside "support" forthcoming for the foreseeable future figures to come in the form of weaponry that can only embolden those who secretly long for war. This will make it that much more difficult to pull back from the brink.
It is impossible to predict what the outcome of this crisis will be, only that the blame for it lies solidly with a political class whose perceptions of reality have become badly distorted. Unless they start focusing - now - on a way out of the crisis, the next window of opportunity might be even shorter than today's. And instead of working to prevent a civil war, we might be engaged in an even tougher job: that of ending one.