Fallout for Syria's Assad Could Be Brutal

Fallout for Syria's Assad Could Be Brutal
By DONNA ABU-NASR Associated Press Writer April 26, 2005
BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) -- Syrian President Bashar Assad will always be remembered as the leader who lost Lebanon, one of the strongest cards Syria ever held in its standoff with Israel.
What was a policy coup 29 years ago for his father, the late President Hafez Assad - the dispatch of troops to a country that Syria had long coveted - turned into a disaster for the son, alienating the world's most powerful nations and threatening his own political future.
On Tuesday, after the last Syrian soldiers left Lebanon, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan dispatched a team to verify the withdrawal. Syria's compliance with the U.N. demand for withdrawal could relieve some of the pressure it has faced since the Feb. 14 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The Lebanese opposition blames Syria and its Lebanese allies for the slaying.
But the pullout won't end all of Syria's woes nor Assad's. It could weaken Assad at home. Or it could give him a chance to move against opponents within his regime by blaming them for a series of recent mistakes.
Either way, Syria faces trouble on all fronts.
"Syria failed to understand the political changes on the international chess board in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union," said the general manager of Al-Arabiya television, Abdulrahman al-Rashed, writing recently in Asharq al-Awsat newspaper. "That has led to grave mistakes in its dealings with the world's central powers."
Internationally, relations between Syria and the United States are at their lowest, with Washington continuing to work to isolate Damascus. The European Union also has linked a billion-dollar trade pact with Syrian policies in Lebanon.
Regionally, relations with Saudi Arabia, Syria's closest Arab friend, have been strained since the assassination of Hariri, who also held Saudi citizenship and was close to the Saudi royal family.
And Syria is hemmed in on all sides by countries either close to Washington or reforming themselves: not just Lebanon, but also Turkey, Jordan, Israel and Iraq, where about 140,000 U.S. soldiers remain.
Perhaps most significantly for Assad politically, the pullout from Lebanon will weaken Syria's hand in talks with Israel.
Syria always insisted Lebanon cannot reach a peace deal with Israel unless Syria does so at the same time. Lebanese leaders largely have gone along with that, but it is something Syria can no longer take for granted.
In addition, Syria's ally, Hezbollah, which has fighters in southern Lebanon near the Israeli border, long has been seen as a tool to pressure Israel. Now, the group is moving toward a more political role in Lebanon and faces demands to rein in its weapons.
Domestically, Syria needs an overhaul, with a decrepit system of government mired in Cold War ideology. The Baath party dominates government, and Assad's efforts to reform the economy are reportedly stymied by a powerful old guard.
"In post-Cold War global relations, Syria does not have the luxury of antagonizing simultaneously the U.S., France with its influence over Europe, and Saudi Arabia," said Abdallah Bouhabib, a former Lebanese ambassador to Washington.
Bouhabib, writing in the Daily Star, said taking partial steps to satisfy the international community - the typical Syrian approach - will not work anymore. Instead, it will only "gradually weaken the regime and lead to its disintegration."
Syria made a series of miscalculations in Lebanon.
First, it forced the extension of President Emile Lahoud's term last year, angering Hariri and anti-Syria factions.
Next, it failed to ensure a serious probe into Hariri's killing, opening the door for the United Nations to order an international investigation.
Then, reports flourished of influential people on both sides of the border benefiting financially from Syrian control over Lebanon.
There were also strategic mistakes.
Some Syrians wonder why their country, which was never friends with Iraq, has allowed itself to be seen as a champion of Saddam Hussein's deposed regime. Washington says Syria is a staging ground for the Iraqi insurgency, a charge Syrians deny.
Analysts say the Syrians did not heed the message implicit in a 2003 U.S. law that accused Damascus of seeking weapons of mass destruction and sheltering Palestinian groups labeled as terrorist - the beginning of a tougher U.S. attitude toward Syria.
They also say Damascus failed to understand the significance of the U.N. resolution calling for the withdrawal from Lebanon. And they say Syria failed to appreciate post-Sept. 11 U.S. policies pushing for greater democracy.
Dennis Ross, a former Middle East mediator, said Syria's pullout "is the beginning of what is going to be a pressure for change, one way or the other."
"It could end up being a coup against the current regime," Ross said.
Or, he said, "It could end up being Bashar himself acting against others who he feels have held him back."