For a few holy weapons

For a few holy weapons
From http://www.beirutbeltway.com/

Israel today confirmed what Nasrallah had claimed before: that Hizbullah is stronger today than before the 34-day war in the summer. With some Israeli officials predicting a renewal of hostilities, many Lebanese believe the Jewish state will soon come to settle its score with the party that claimed divine victory over its mighty army.

And Hizbullah is getting ready.

The party has been tirelessly trying to remove some of the obstacles between them and the border: UNIFIL 2 and the Lebanese army. Syria is their supply route, and I think Hizbullah's opposition to the tribunal is at least partially motivated by the need to protect their only road to Iran's arsenal.

The Lebanese army today is overstretched and exhausted, not to mention ill-equipped to face the Israelis. So it's not much of an obstacle for Hizbullah. UNIFIL 2, Hizbullah decided after grudgingly agreeing to UNSC 1701, can only be removed through what they call a "national unity government".

March 14 is rightly pre-occupied with the Hariri tribunal. But there needs to be another priority—one that the July war should have proven its utmost importance: Hizbullah's weapons. Despite the one or two confiscation incidents, there have been no serious attempts to treat this issue. By occupying downtown Beirut, and stirring sectarian tensions, Hizbullah has successfully hid its weapons inside the cloak of sectarian strife.

Hizbullah has created so many fronts for Siniora's government and the March 14 cabinet, that it's easy to forget that the best protection against another divine devastation is an offense against Hizbullah's weapons. If March 14 in the past treaded carefully on this issue for fear of igniting a war, Hizbullah has made it even more difficult for them now. To their supporters, Hizbullah's weapons have increased in importance and taken on an undeclared domestic role, especially after the bloody confrontations in January with what Hizbullah's media machine called "the government militias".

Hizbullah is stalling. Time seems to be on their side. If they believe that the Israeli blow is in the making, then all they need to do is devise strategy to delay and obstruct until war delivers them jihad. Nasrallah's refusal to return to national dialogue is because he does not want to discuss his weapons again, and not, as Nasrallah claimed, because he doesn't want to be seen as the opposition's driving force. The party has no problem plunging the country into chaos until war time.

Hizbullah has been called stupid before, for failing to understand the Lebanese formula. But perhaps they're not so stupid after all. Their weapons are now protected by the ghosts of sectarian warfare. March 14 had better re-open this issue and make it a top priority before Israel comes knocking on the door again.

Update. Speaking of stalling, buying time is the official new Iranian-Syrian strategy over the next few months, according to Kuwaiti newspaper Al Rai AL Aam. The paper says that immediately after returning from Tehran, Bashar Assad "asked" Emile Lahoud to use article 59 in the constitution which allows him to adjourn parliament for up to a month. Parliament's first session this year is scheduled to start in March. Saad Hariri in an interview with Al-Arabiya a few days ago hinted that if parliament fails to approve the Hariri tribunal during that time, the UNSC may resort to a chapter 7 resolution setting up the court.