Blast that ignited a 15-year Civil War - EXPLODED AGAIN.

Analysis: Ein Alaq and Ain El-Rummaneh
16-02-07

BY: ALHAYAT

A lot has been said about the place and timing of the Ein Alaq bombing, which comes one day before the second anniversary

Analysis: Ein Alaq and Ain El-Rummaneh

A lot has been said about the place and timing of the Ein Alaq bombing, which comes one day before the second anniversary of the assassination of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Some considered the explosion a message to Defense Minister Elias Murr, who played the major role in exposing Hezbollah's weapons shipment scandal. It was also said that the blast was a warning message to former President Amin Gemayel, who has just returned from the US where he called for setting up an international tribunal and disarming Hezbollah. In addition, others said the terrorist bombing was aimed at intimidating people and preventing them from using public buses, hundreds of which were provided by the majority parties to collect citizens from all over the country to take part in the independence marches taking off today.

The most significant thing about yesterday's blast, however, is that it is reminiscent of the blast that ignited a 15-year Civil War in Lebanon in 1975. The war broke out after mutual operations between Christian groups, led by MP Saad Hadad, and the Palestinian factions based in Lebanon in the wake of the Lebanese Kataeb Party setting an ambush for a bus carrying civilians, mostly Palestinians, in the predominately Christian Ain el-Rummaneh. About 25 people were killed in the explosion.

The place and timing of the blast do not necessarily bear any political significance. However, in the case of the Ein Alaq incident, it is impossible to overlook the significance of the place in particular. The explosion took place in a mostly Christian region, during a period of crises that many inside Lebanon and abroad believe stem out of a crisis between the Sunnis and Shiites. This is as if the plotters of this bombing wanted to change the standoff from a sectarian conflict to a conflict between Islam and Christianity, or provoke those Christian parties which remained within the circle of the Sunni-Shiite standoff.

In addition, those who carried out this act are well aware that targeting Christians will also change the reactions to Lebanon's ongoing crisis from demonstrations to beyond. Attempting to change the direction of the current conflict in Lebanon by targeting Christian civilians will result in confusion and bring back the political fears that the Christians used to voice before to the assassination of PM Hariri. It may also push some Christian sides to adopt extreme attitudes that weaken current political alliances and divide the allegiance between two or more sides. It may even cause a split in the ranks of the so-called opposition.

A Christian leader like Michel Aoun finds himself in an embarrassing situation after the Ein Alaq attack. His silence will be interpreted as a sign that he agrees to targeting Christian civilians, while any attempt to reveal the truth about what happened will put him in a tight corner with his allies. His comments on the incident may have reflected part of this concern, which may develop with time into a stance forcing him to change his political position.

There is no doubt that the executors of the Ein Alaq explosion wanted to change the nature of the crisis from the current shape, marked by standoffs, marches and protests, to one marked by conformations and violence. They are seeking to recall the Christian rhetoric to the frontline and throw Lebanon's Christian citizens into the heart of the crisis.

Therefore, this incident might be the first of a series of similar acts targeting the Christian population in an attempt to reshape the rhetoric and political standings and distract the Lebanese people away from the issue of the international tribunal and disarmament to the civil war rhetoric.

Although the incident is serious, and shows that the perpetrators are able to understand the nature of the conflict in Lebanon, it remains another episode in the series of assassinations and bombings. Therefore, foiling the goals of this terrorist act depends largely on the results of the investigation, and the identification of those who carried it out. Shelving the investigation, as was the custom with previous attacks, would have grave consequences on Lebanon, and give Hariri's assassins the chance to escape punishment.

In addition, hiding the truth will weaken the position of the government, which has failed so far to solve crimes that targeted the country's security.

It is noteworthy that, according to old dictionaries, the phrase 'Ein Alaq' in Arabic means 'fighting invaders and assailants with arms and bare hands'. I hope yesterday's incident would not lift this meaning off the page, as Lebanon had had enough from the consequences of the Ain el-Rummaneh incident.